The Total Eclipse has Arrived
By Kian Naini | May 15, 2024
Victor Wembanyama’s arrival to the NBA was greeted with mystical fanfare. Heralded as the best draft prospect since LeBron James, yet most fans had never watched him play a game in full length due to Wembanyama playing all of his games in the French league. All we had to go on was this idea of a player reminiscent of an NBA 2K created player: a 7’4” big man that could handle and shoot like a guard, finish over anyone with his height, and rebound and protect the rim like his countryman Rudy Gobert. The NBA has seen remarkably tall players before, with names like Yao Ming, Manute Bol, and Ralph Sampson coming to mind. However, none of these guys have had the fluidity of motion or the perimeter game that Wemby possesses. How the Spurs are using him is unprecedented, and has the potential to become a complete game-breaker if Wembanyama reaches his full potential.
Simply put, guys that are Wembanyama’s size just don’t attempt three-point shots as often as he does. Among players 7’2” and above, his three-point attempt rate is only rivaled by Luke Kornet, Kristaps Porzingis, and Bol Bol in all of NBA history. It is noteworthy that all of these players are part of the modern NBA, likely a reflection of the emphasis placed on spacing and shooting in the last ten years.
Wembanyama’s overall three-point volume is dramatically higher than every player on the above chart except for Porzingis. Wembanyama and Porzingis are the only two players above 7’2” in NBA history with more than five three-point attempts per game. However, the quality and type of shots each is taking is drastically different. Porzingis relies exclusively on catch-and-shoot threes, centering on pick-and-pop actions. Wembanyama creates his shots off of pull-ups and multiple dribbles much more than Porzingis, which are higher difficulty shots than standstill catch-and-shoot threes.
Put it all together, and we’ve essentially never seen a player at Wembanyama’s size shoot this many threes at this level of difficulty. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he’s not only taking these shots, but he’s also making these shots. He shot 37.5% on pull-up threes and 46.2% on step-back threes. That 46.2% clip was the highest in the entire NBA among players with at least 50 three-point attempts. Interestingly, he shot just 28.3% on catch-and-shoot threes, but it stands to reason that this efficiency will increase in the future due to his solid mechanics and adeptness at shooting more difficult shots. When that happens, it may be truly impossible to guard Victor Wembanyama.
In addition to his three-point prowess, Wemby has also been featured in the Spurs offense at an unparalleled rate among both players of a similar age and/or similar stature. At a 32.2% usage rate, Wembanyama had the highest usage rate among any qualified rookie in NBA history, and already the second-highest rate among all seven-footers all-time, trailing only Joel Embiid. Usage rate is a metric that aims to quantify the percentage of his team’s possessions a player uses while they are on the court. Higher usage rates correlate to players who are directly involved in their team’s offensive actions more. In the modern NBA, high usage rates often come from ball-dominant guards. Wembanyama’s massive usage rate shows he, like Embiid, is being used as a heliocentric initiator of the offense. Setting aside youth, this is even more ridiculous when you consider that other seven-footers who have posted massive usage rates like Embiid and Shaquille O’Neal often do a lot of their work from the post, an area Wembanyama does not frequent as often. Part of the reason for this massive usage rate is that, unlike many other centers in history, Wembanyama is also shouldering a large playmaking burden. His assist percentage of 21.5% is already the highest career assist percentage among any seven-footer ever.
For about half the season, the Spurs decided to play without a true starting point guard, opting instead to start point forward Jeremy Sochan at the point guard position with their best point guard, Tre Jones, coming off the bench. Jones entered the starting lineup in January, and Wemby’s averages shot up from 18.9 PTS, 10.3 REB, and 3.0 AST before January to 22.7 PTS, 11.4 REB, and 5.0 AST from there on. There is some natural rookie growth that has to be taken into account as Wemby grew accustomed to the NBA, however, Jones also made Wembanyama’s life slightly easier with his playmaking ability. The Spurs’ five best lineups by plus/minus all featured some combination with Jones and Wembanyama, and just the two-man combination was by far the best pairing with a net of +5.1 points. The fact that Wembayama put up the outstanding averages he did despite his team handicapping him for half the season should make other teams extremely anxious as to what could happen if the Spurs upgrade at point guard in the offseason through trade or the draft.
In addition to his offensive prowess, Wembanyama also led the entire league in blocks with 3.6 per game and will likely finish second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, a remarkable achievement for a rookie. The 3.6 BLK was the highest single season average since Serge Ibaka in the 2011-2012 season, and Wembanyama also had the most combined steals plus blocks this season. In many ways, the rim protection ability is a direct consequence of his freakish combination of size and length. Yet his ability to move in space at his ridiculous frame gives him the ability to switch onto perimeter players, a vital skill in the modern NBA where many defensive coverages are predicated upon players being able to guard multiple matchups. It is likely only a matter of time before he wins multiple DPOYs.
Upon signing his shoe deal, Nike marketed Wemby as the alien. Taking into account his shooting, playmaking, overall scoring ability, and defense, it stands to reason that Wemby entering his prime will truly be the dawn of the extraterrestrial among normal NBA players. The NBA 2K demigod casual NBA fans pictured when Wembanyama was drafted may just become a reality.