Need for Speed: How an Increased Pace is Paying Dividends for the Sacramento Kings
By Noah Kuo |April 11, 2019
Entering the 2018-2019 NBA season, few fans had any expectations for the Sacramento Kings; after all, the team hasn’t achieved a winning season since 2005, and they recently jettisoned their star, Demarcus Cousins, to kickstart yet another rebuild. In the offseason, they drafted number 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley, but made no other additions that would seem to transform the squad into a playoff team. They kept a similar coaching staff, including head coach Dave Joerger, who came off of two seasons with winning percentages less than 0.400. There was nothing that would suggest that this Kings team would be any different than teams from the past decade. Yet, with the regular season coming to a close, they sit above more highly touted and star laden teams like the Lakers or Timberwolves.
First, let’s examine what’s changed about the team this year. Their defense has given up around the same amount of points this year compared to last. Instead, most of the change this year has come on the offensive end. Most notably, the Kings’ scoring average has increased dramatically, going from 98.8 (worst in the NBA) to a respectable 114 points per game (9th in the NBA). Nevertheless, their efficiency has remained constant as they haven’t been shooting at an especially high rate compared to last year.
The differences have been minimal, so what factors led to their offensive explosion? The answer lies in their pace of play. When Dave Joerger was hired, he was coming off several seasons leading the Memphis Grizzlies, who had slowed games down during the “Grit and Grind” era. Joerger carried that style over during the first two years that he led the Kings. His first year, the 2016-2017 season, their pace was 24th in the league, according to NBA.com. They slowed down even more the next year, averaging only 95.5 possessions per game which ranked dead last. However, this year, their pace has ballooned to 104.48, highest in the league as of March 2019.
But why has their pace increased so much? Well, Joerger and the Kings have made more of an emphasis to play to the strengths of their young core. One important piece has been the play of their new star, De’Aaron Fox. After his time at the University of Kentucky, Fox was known as a player with blistering pace and acceleration that drew comparisons to John Wall and Russell Westbrook. Yet, he struggled for most of his rookie season as he learned to turn his quickness into NBA production. This year, however, he has the keys to the Kings’ offense, and he and his fast-pace game have shined with the new responsibilities. He’s started every game this year, and his usage ratio is in the 84th percentile amongst all point guards. In addition to the increased usage, his efficiency has actually increased. His shooting percentage has gone from 41% to 46%, and his three-point percentage has gone from 31% to 38%. He’s averaging three more assists per game, and his assist to turnover ratio has improved as well. In general, his numbers are all higher across the board.
Another key piece of the Kings’ improvement has been the play of another potential star, Buddy Hield. Two years after the Kings were widely criticized for trading away Demarcus Cousins for Buddy Hield and two first round picks, Hield has begun to reward the Kings for their faith with his tremendous shooting. He’s been known to spend countless hours working on his shot after practices or games, and his hard work is paying off. His scoring average has been bumped from 13.5 to 20.9 ppg, and he’s been averaging 1.19 points per shot attempt, which is in the 90th percentile for all wings, according to Cleaning the Glass. He’s also been averaging five more shot attempts per game while still maintaining his high efficiency marks. His three-point shooting percentage has remained steady at 43%, ranking sixth in the league ahead of stars like Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving. As the chart below shows, he’s been shooting extremely well from all around the arc even while shooting at an immense volume.
The Kings have shown remarkable improvement over the past year, owing to a style of play more suited to their personnel as well as growth from some of their young cornerstones. They’ve hit a bit of cold stretch in March, but it’s important to remember that this Sacramento team is much younger than most other teams, with an average age of only 25. In addition to Fox and Hield, they still have a cadre of players with high potential. Marvin Bagley, this year’s second-overall pick, ranks in the top-5 in points per game for rookies. Bogdan Bogdanovic was on last year’s All-Rookie Second Team. Harry Giles, another first round pick, is working to realize the potential that made him the #1 recruit coming out of high school only a few years ago. So even though the current team is not quite a championship contender, they might be only a few years from becoming the new “Kings” of the NBA.