The New England Patriots: Historical Domination
By Naman Patel | October 30, 2019
In 2007, the New England Patriots had one of the most historic football seasons ever going 16-0 in the regular season. Although they ultimately lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots established their systematic dominance over the league that has been displayed year after year. With the Patriots 6-0 in the current NFL season, analysts and fans alike are excited to see whether or not the Patriots will be able to deliver in the postseason. Tom Brady (QB), Bill Belichick (Head Coach), and Josh McDaniels (Offensive Coordinator) are three integral pieces from the 2007 Patriots’ success story that are still in place with the team as they embark on the quest to go 19-0, a perfect season all the way to the Super Bowl. In order to truly gauge the strength of the two rosters more than a decade apart, we will compare the statistics from each team unit (offense, defense, and special teams) as well as certain key players to gain insight into how these metrics throughout the first six Patriots performances in 2019 stack up to the immortalized 2007 season.
To start, the 2019 Patriots through six games have outscored their opponents 190-48 and have 2318 total yards gained (passing and rushing) while the defense held opponents to only 1408 total yards gained. Breaking these numbers up, the Patriots offense have gained 1709 passing yards and 609 rushing yards, and the defense has held the six teams they have played to 966 passing yards and 442 rushing yards. Immediately, we see that in addition to the already commanding offense, the Patriots defense has been airtight to stop their opponent’s drives down the field. In fact, only two teams have given up less yards than the New England Patriots and only five have gained more than them. Meanwhile, the 2007 Patriots ended their regular season with only three teams ahead of them for yardage allowed and the most total yards in the league. More importantly, no other team had a better differential between yardage allowed and gained than the Patriots in 2007. Similarly, no team throughout the first six games of the Patriots’ 2019 season has a better differential in that category than the Patriots right now. This is an important observation and significant metric since ultimately, winning football games comes down to gaining as much yardage as possible while not allowing your opponents to do the same.
Another important measurement touched upon earlier is the impressive point differential displayed by the New England Patriots so far in the 2019 season. The chart below shows the sustained greatness of the Pats as (since 2001) they outrank the second place team in the NFL in point differential by nearly 1,500. This drastic difference has culminated in 18 straight winning seasons for the Patriots with no signs of slowing down this season.
Furthermore, the 2007 Patriots defense only allowed 274 points scored by opponents, the fourth lowest in the league. On track again, the 2019 Patriots have allowed only 48 points through 6 games and at the given rate are projected to allow only 128 points. This however, does not take into account the increasing difficulty of schedule the Patriots will face as the season progresses and fatigue. Regardless, even conservative estimates place the Patriots defense to allow only around 200-250 points by the end of the season, well below the historical league average.
Having dissected and analyzed the key offensive and defensive metrics, another important part of winning is definitely special teams conversion of field goals. In 2007, the Patriots completed 21 of 24 field goal attempts for a completion percentage of 87.5%, ranking them top 10 in the league for FG%. Following this trend, the 2019 Patriots have so far completed 9 of 11 field goal attempts for a completion percentage of 81.8%, ranking in the top half of the league. Though the 2019 Patriots are currently under their 2007 FG%, this can largely be attributed to factors resulting from the lack of games played by all teams in the league. Given the smaller sample size used to calculate the 2019 Patriots FG%, it is highly likely that, much like usual, the Patriots rise to the top 10 in this metric as the season progresses and the averages are balanced out for each team in the league.
Overall, the current Patriots roster and coaching staff have already proven that they are the team to beat in the upcoming weeks and the (essentially guaranteed) postseason. As compared to their historic undefeated season, we see that the Patriots are truly an offensive and defensive force similar to when they went undefeated all the way to the Super Bowl. The upcoming NFL games will definitely be worth a watch as the Patriots attempt another shot at history.